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Aug
16
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm Pewa is now active in the central Pacific Ocean…located approximately 1240 miles southwest of Lihue, Kauai (sustained winds of 40 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, CPHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Pewa in the Central Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, CPHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Pewa in the Central Pacific

Newly formed tropical storm Pewa, the first tropical cyclone in the central Pacific this season…is now active.  On August 16 at 1500 UTC/11 a.m. EDT/5 a.m. Hawaii Standard Time, Tropical Storm Pewa’s maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Pewa was centered near 10.2 north and 173.5 west, or more than 1,275 miles southwest of Kauai, Hawaii.

TS Pewa is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast for Pewa takes the storm on a northwesterly track…with its center staying over open ocean. Pewa is expected to maintain tropical storm status for the next several days as it moves towards the International Dateline and the western Pacific beyond.

There continues to be no threat to the Hawaii Islands as TS Pewa moves away. Here’s a NASA satellite image of Pewa…along with the area of disturbed described below.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with Tropical Storm Pewa and an area circled in orange with a medium chance of developing in the Central Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with Tropical Storm Pewa and an area circled in orange…with a medium chance of developing in the Central Pacific Ocean

Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather (circled in orange above) with a medium 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone…remains active to the southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This system is being hindered by the close proximity of TS Pewa, and has a ragged appearance on satellite imagery. This system known as Invest 90C is moving steadily westward…and poses no threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the Eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the Eastern Pacific

Finally, there’s a new area of disturbed weather being noted now in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This area, circled in yellow above, has a low 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggests that chances of development may improve marginally to 20% over the course of the next 5 days. The primary limiting factor on development of this system…is the unfavorable upper air environment at the moment. Here’s a satellite image of this area.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pewa)

CPHC textual forecast advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

1. An area of low pressure centered about 775 miles south-southwest of Kauai is moving west near 15 mph. Outflow from the developing system described above is making conditions less conducive for further development, and system organization has diminished over the past six to twelve hours. This system has a medium chance, 30 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

2. A surface trough about 450 miles south of Hilo Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves west at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions are not conducive for further development, and this system has a low chance, near 0 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area