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Aug
16
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical depression Erin remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 540 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands (sustained winds of 35 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical depression Erin in the Atlantic Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical depression Erin in the Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone Erin in the Atlantic Ocean, has recently slipped down from the tropical storm classification…to a tropical depression. This weakening is apparently due to the cooler sea surface temperatures it has moved over, and a more stable air environment. Despite the fact that TD Erin will move over somewhat warmer seas in a couple of days, there will also be an increase in southwesterly shearing winds aloft. This all translates into little change in strength through the upcoming NHC forecast period. The NHC goes on to say that Erin could degenerate into a remnant low pressure system during the next few days.

In sum, TD Erin is now weak, and has lost much of its heavy thunderstorm activity, with little chance of major change in its stature. Here’s what the various weather models are showing, based on the latest NHC forecast – Advisory #7. Here’s a NASA satellite image of TD Erin.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the Gulf of Mexico

Meanwhile, the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean has shifted into the very southern part of the Gulf of Mexico. This tropical disturbance, better known as Invest 92L, is just offshore from the Yucatan Peninsula. This area has now begun to spin, although still doesn’t have much heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. There’s still a bit of dry air being entrained into this system as well, along with a moderate amount of wind shear too…keeping development subdued for the moment.

The NHC is giving 92L a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. Some of the weather models are trying to make this system spin up into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm already this weekend. There are varying directions that the models are showing for possible paths. As we can see, the two most likely perhaps, would be westward into Mexico…and more or less northward into the Texas Gulf coast.

The eastern extent of this system should be able to pump lots of  heavy tropical moisture into the southeastern United States. This NWS 7 day precipitation graphic shows this swath of heavy precipitation well.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Erin)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED 
OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS 
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND 
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD 
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD 
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD 
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IF THE 
LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT WOULD MOVE INTO 
A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR 
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 
TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico