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Aug
15
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Erin is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 115 miles west-southwest of Brava in the Cape Verde Islands (Strengthening tropical storm…sustained winds of 40 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm Erin in the Atlantic Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm Erin in the eastern Atlantic Ocean

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now carrying a new tropical storm named Erin, active in the eastern Atlantic. This 5th tropical storm of the season is over a warm sea, and under a relatively light wind shear. This in turn should allow some additional development over the next few days. TS Erin is moving by just to the north of the Cape Verde Islands, with the NHC forecasting a gradually strengthening during the next 48 hours. Erin will then level off at near 60 mph through 72+ hours…before sliding back down the intensity scale from the 96 hour point onwards. The latest GFS weather model run shows TS Erin dissipating before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Here’s what the various weather models are showing, based on the latest NHC forecast – Advisory #3

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the Caribbean Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the Caribbean Sea

Meanwhile, the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean continues to show activity. This tropical disturbance, currently near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, seems to becoming better organized this morning. The thunderstorm activity is increasing in intensity and coverage as well…although surface circulation continues to be absent.

There are several hurricane hunter flights scheduled to fly into this disturbance soon, which is being called Invest 92L. These flights will provide additional information, which will help the NHC determine future movement and potential strength. Expectations continue that 92L will slide into the southern Gulf of Mexico at some point Friday. Looking further ahead, it appears that we could see a tropical depression forming early this weekend, over the warm waters of the Gulf.

Whether this system will be able to attain tropical storm status is still a question. However, the potential for an eventual interaction with the southeast United States is still possible This in turn would bring copious tropical precipitation into that area, along with flooding conditions. There are other models which show a more westerly track, which could pull that moisture more towards Texas or even the Mexican mainland. Thus, uncertainty prevails for the time being…about what will happen once this system gets into the Gulf – stay tuned.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05L (Erin)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER LAND HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico