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Aug
14
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Typhoon 11W (Utor) is now inland over mainland China…located approximately 157 NM west of Hong Kong (Sustained winds of 75 knots, and gusts to near 90 knots) – Final Warning

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Typhoon 11W (Utor) in the South China Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Typhoon 11W (Utor) inland over China

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has given its final warning on this typhoon, as it has moved inland over mainland China. Typhoon Utor impacted the southeast China coast about 150 miles southwest of the major city of Hong Kong…as a category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. This system was close enough to Hong Kong, that winds were gusting as high as 54 mph there.

Heavy rains are falling across the area at the time of this writing…as seen on this Hong Kong  looping radar image. This dissipating tropical cyclone will continue to spread heavy rains over much of southeast China and northern Vietnam during the next 2-3 days. Dangerous flash flooding and mudslides are very likely as soon retired Utor moves inland. Meanwhile, when Utor struck the Philippines two days ago, as a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, there were 4 deaths…with 11 people still missing.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and orange) in the Central Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and orange) in the Central Pacific

Meanwhile, there continues to be a tropical disturbance in the central Pacific this morning…having recently crossed over the 140W line of longitude from the eastern Pacific. The official outlook from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu (CPHC) is further down this page. The area above circled in yellow has a low 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.  Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next 5 days.

At the same time, the CPHC is calling attention to a second area of disturbed weather, actually an elongated trough of low pressure, located well to the south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system is in an environment that isn’t conducive for development…having a low 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Here’s a satellite image showing both of these areas.


Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

1. An elongated surface trough located about 700 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not conducive for any significant development near this trough as it continues moving westward at about 15 mph. This system has a low chance, near 0 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

2. An elongated surface trough is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1100 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development during the next couple of days as this trough moves westward at about 15 mph. This system has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. 

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Utor) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area