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Aug
14
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the Caribbean Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the Caribbean Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in red) offshore from the African coast

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in red) offshore from the African coast

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing. However, there are two tropical disturbances, the first in the Caribbean Sea, and a new area offshore from the African coast…both shown in the images above.

1.) The disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, now has a high 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours…with an elevated 70% chance during the next five days. This area is being called 92L, and is migrating in a northwesterly direction at 10-15 mph. Here’s a NASA satellite image of this area, showing lots of thunderstorms, although no signs of circulation.

The various weather models show many directions that this system could take, if it were to develop into an active tropical depression or storm. Perhaps the most likely solution would bring this system northward between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle…as noted here yesterday. If this were to happen, heavy rainfall would be carried into the southeastern United States. Here’s the NWS 7-day precipitation outlook graphical map…showing very heavy, potentially flood producing rainfall in the area described above.

2.) The second image above, circled in red, shows a new area of disturbed weather with a high 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours…which has recently moved off the coast of Africa. This disturbance is moving west-northwest at near 10 mph.

Environmental conditions, including warm sea water temperatures below, and only 12-17 mph vertical wind shear above, should promote continued development into Thursday. Cooler sea water, along with drier air from the Saharan Desert, may take their toll on this system in a couple of days.  The Cape Verde Islands should receive lots of heavy rainfall over the next day or two.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico