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Aug
13
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Typhoon 11W (Utor) remains active in the South China Sea…located approximately 190 NM south-southwest of Hong Kong (Sustained winds of 95 knots, and gusts to near 115 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Typhoon 11W (Utor) in the South China Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Typhoon 11W (Utor) in the South China Sea

While Typhoon Utor was exiting the Philippines yesterday (Monday), the storms maximum sustained winds were near 85 knots. However, this morning (Tuesday), the warm waters of the South China Sea had helped strengthen this tropical cyclone…which had increased to 95 knots.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) pointed out that Utor was currently located about 190 NM south-southwest of Hong Kong. TC Utor was moving to the west-northwest at near 6 knots. Meanwhile, Utor’s very strong winds are generating very high, and rough seas…with maximum wave heights reported near 41 feet.

Although Utor’s winds had increased since yesterday, animated infrared satellite imagery showed that the convective structure of the system has started to weaken. JTWC noted the convective bands have become shallower and weaker today, while infrared data also showed that the eye had become ragged in nature.

Typhoon Utor is predicted to move towards the west-northwest, making landfall in China tomorrow, August 14 between Hainan Island and Hong Kong. More specifically, the forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center takes Utor’s center somewhere between Zhanjiang and Maoming, Guangdong, China. The two cities are about 75 miles apart.

The JTWC expects Utor to weaken after landfall, and curve to the west-southwest over northern Vietnam, where it will begin to dissipate. This typhoon will bring heavy pounding surf to the coastal area of impact, along with storm surge and dangerous rip tides and currents. Local fisherman and coastal residents should be making last minute preparations now. Meanwhile, very strong and gusty winds, and heavy flood producing rains will batter the coast as well. Precipitation will be carried well inland, with heavy amounts leading to flash flooding likely.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and orange) in the Central and Eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and orange) in the Central and Eastern Pacific

Meanwhile, there are two tropical disturbances noted in the central/eastern Pacific this morning. The official outlooks from the National Hurricane Center in Miami (NHC), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu (CPHC) are further down this page. The area above circled in orange is in the eastern Pacific, and is currently of no danger…other than ships at sea. The area circled in yellow has moved westward into the central Pacific basin.

This second area continues to catch the eye of forecasters in the central Pacific of course, although is not a major issue, nor is it expected to be. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) is suggesting that this area will migrate west, and may bring an increase in showers to the Big Island of the Hawaiian chain of islands this weekend.

This satellite image shows the area noted above, circled in orange…with a medium 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours – just to the east of 130W longitude.

This satellite image shows the area circled in yellow with a 20% chance west of 140W…and the area to the east of 140W as well


Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE ON THURSDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

1. An area of low pressure located about 900 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. More than one vorticity center lies within this area of interest, hindering development around a single dominant center. If development occurs within this disturbed area, it will be slow as it moves westward at about 15 mph over the next couple of days. This area of interest has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

2. A low pressure system located about 1500 miles east southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become more unfavorable on Thursday. This system has a medium chance, 40 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Utor)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area