Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

Aug
13
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow) in the Caribbean Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the Caribbean Sea

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows no active tropical cyclones. However, there is a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, described further down this page…which is producing heavy thunderstorms in the area, particularly over Jamaica at the time of this writing. As this disturbance continues to move in a westward direction, it will bring thunderstorms into the Cayman Islands, and eventually over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. This disturbance may then push into the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the work week, with improved environment conditions for development.

Wind shear remains very high at the moment, as it was yesterday, blowing in the 35-46 mph range aloft. This in turn is making development of this system unlikely for the time being…thus the low 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. At least one weather model is showing development of this disturbance into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. It goes on to describe a landfall somewhere between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle…this weekend.

Most of the other models are not so aggressive however, keeping this disturbance from developing into a tropical cyclone. The NHC official outlook calls for an increased 30% chance of development within five days. Nonetheless, there is a reasonably good chance that this system may bring a soaking rainstorm to the southeast United States, potentially leading to localized flooding later this weekend. This wouldn’t be a beneficial event for the area…as soils there are already very wet from previous rainy weather.

Here’s the NWS 7-day precipitation outlook graphical map

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico