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Aug
12
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Typhoon 11W (Utor) remains active in the South China Sea…located approximately 346 NM southeast of Hong Kong (Strengthening…with sustained winds of 85 knots, and gusts to near 105 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Typhoon 11W (Utor) in the South China Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Typhoon 11W (Utor) in the South China Sea

Typhoon Utor on Sunday had maximum sustained winds of 130 knots, qualifying it as a super typhoon. It was centered just east of the Philippine Islands…which was about 170 NM east-northeast of Manila. Utor made landfall along the east coast of Luzon Island, and took just 12+ hours to cross that island, weakening into a typhoon in the process.

This NASA satellite image shows Utor before it struck the Philippines…while this satellite picture shows the compromised typhoon as it moved westward into the South China Sea today.

Early this morning at 1500 UTC Utor’s center had crossed over the Philippines from east to west, and had emerged in the warm waters of the South China Sea. Maximum sustained winds had dropped to 85 knots, as the physical terrain features of Luzon Island had weakened the system greatly. There are various warnings in effect today, as typhoon Utor moves away from the west coast of the Philippines. Public storm warning signal #1 was still in effect for the following provinces: Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Isabela, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, IIocos Norte, Pampanga, Bataan, and Zambales. Public storm warning signal #2 is in effect in the provinces of: Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Benguet, La Union and Pangasinan.

Reuters News Service reported today that one person had died, and there were at least 13 people missing. Reuters also noted that the hardest hit town was Casiguran in Aurora province on the Philippines’ east coast. Casiguran is the unofficial capital of the northern part of Aurora and is well-known for its beaches and recreation. Utor caused power outages, agricultural damages and landslides.

After weakening over the Philippines, Utor is expected to re-strengthen in the South China Sea, before making a final landfall in southeastern China. Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) noted that the current track of the storm takes the center between Hainan Island, China and Hong Kong for a landfall on approximately August 14th – Wednesday.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and red) in the Central and Eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and red) in the Central and Eastern Pacific

Meanwhile, there are two tropical disturbances noted in the central/eastern Pacific this morning. The official outlooks from the National Hurricane Center in Miami (NHC) are below. The area above circled in red is in the eastern Pacific, and is currently of no danger…other than ships at sea. The area circled in yellow is straddling the 140W line of longitude…dividing the eastern and central Pacific basins.

This area is catching the eye of forecasters in the central Pacific of course, although is not major issue at this point. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) is suggesting that this area will migrate west, and may bring an increase in showers to the Big Island end of the Hawaiian chain of islands this coming weekend.

This satellite image shows the area noted above, circled in red…with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours – just to the east of 130W longititude.

This satellite image shows the area near 140W…along with what’s left of now retired Henriette to the southwest of the islands.


Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. IF
ADDITIONAL DATA CONFIRM THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED...
ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

A trough of low pressure located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Organization has improved somewhat over the past 6 hours. However, development of this disturbance is expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward at about 15 mph over the next few days. This system has a low chance, 10 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Utor)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area