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Aug
09
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm Henriette (08E) remains active in the central Pacific…located approximately 820 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii (Weakening tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph)

Tropical depression 11W is now active in the western Pacific…located approximately 671 NM east of Manila, Philippines (Strengthening…with sustained winds of 30 knots, and gusts to near 40 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm Henriette (08E) in the Central Pacific.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm Henriette (08E) in the Central Pacific.

Tropical cyclone Henrietta is losing its punch, and is on a weakening trend in the central Pacific…which will continue as it tracks south of the Hawaiian Islands. Henrietta has dropped from a category 2 hurricane at its peak…now down to a strong tropical storm. The westward motion of this storm took a rather abrupt turn towards the west-southwest recently, which bodes well for the Hawaiian Islands.

This is a very small storm, which are often called midgets in the meteorology community. The current Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) forecast track takes this tropical storm over a progressively warmer sea surface, which often means strengthening. However, in this case, and offsetting this possibility…there is a persistent, and increasingly strong wind shear aloft. This in turn will cause a steady weakening and eventual dissipation. The latest forecast has Henriette becoming a tropical depression in 48 hours, and then a remnant low pressure system within 72 hours.

The Hawaiian Islands will see some of the northern fringe of this tropical storm, although mostly in the form of high and middle level clouds…which get blown over the Aloha state on the southwest shearing winds at higher altitudes of the atmosphere. Whatever associated wind and precipitation that are around this system, will likely be too far south to influence our local weather.  There may be a bit of swell that was generated by Henriette, impacting our east and southeast shores this weekend.

Here’s a satellite image of Henrietta…and a looping shot of this tropical storm as it spins through the central Pacific.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and orange) in the Eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and orange) in the Eastern Pacific

Meanwhile, there are two westward moving tropical disturbances in the eastern Pacific. The yellow circle in the picture above represents a low pressure area with a low 20% chance of developing over the next 48 hours, although with an increased 30% chance within five days…called 93E. This area isn’t developing as quickly as its companion low pressure system to the east. Satellite imagery shows that this elongated tropical disturbance is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. It’s located about 1,600 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.

The next circle, colored in orange, has a 30% medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next two days, with a higher 60% chance of developing into a TC within five days…called 92E. Showers and thunderstorms are much more organized than her sister to the west, according to satellite imagery. This low pressure system is centered about 800 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico…moving to the west at near 10-15 mph.

Here’s a NASA satellite image of these two areas…by the way…Henriette was still a hurricane earlier this morning when the picture was taken.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Depression 11W in the Philippine Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Depression 11W in the Philippine Sea

Newly formed tropical depression 11W is located approximately 671 NM east of Manila, Philippines…moving westward at near 10 knots (12 mph). Satellite imagery shows formative deep convective banding surround the small, tightly compacted low level circulation center. Upper air analysis indicates a favorable environment, characterized by weak 5-10 knot vertical wind shear, along with strong outflow.

Tropical depression 11W is forecast to continue moving west-northwest through the next 72 hours. Those favorable conditions, including low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and strong outflow, are expected to persist through the forecast period. This tropical system is forecast to intensify to 60 knots within 48 hours…as it approaches the east coast of Luzon Island. As it impacts Luzon as a tropical storm, and moves over that island, it will experience a slight weakening, before entering the warm waters of the South China Sea. The Philippine islands will have strong gusty winds, rough surf along the east coasts, and heavy flooding rainfall.

TD 11W is forecast to strengthen again thereafter, becoming a typhoon within 72 hours over the South China Sea. After 72 hours, TD 11W will track WNW in direction again, peaking at 70 knots by the 96 hour point. This system is then expected to weaken as it encounters the China coast…making landfall on the border between Vietnam and China in 120 hours. This will bring high surf and swell, strong blustery winds, and heavy flooding rainfall to the area, and well inland.


Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER…ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…50 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAND A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

Tropical Cyclone Henriette (08E)

CPHC textual forecast advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Elsewhere…no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11W

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area