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Aug
07
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Hurricane Henriette (08E) is active in the eastern Pacific…located approximately 1325 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii (Sustained winds of 75 knots, with gusts to near 85 knots)

Tropical Storm Mangkhut (10W) is active in the South China Sea…located approximately 92 NM south of Hanoi, Vietnam (Weakening tropical storm…sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Hurricane Henriette (08E) in the Eastern Pacific.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Hurricane Henriette (08E) in the Eastern Pacific.

Hurricane Henrietta remains active in the eastern Pacific, and is peaking in strength at the time of this writing. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows this system moving into the central Pacific Thursday night…as a weakening tropical storm. As Henriette continues to move west-northwest at near 9 knots (10 mph), it will encounter cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more stable environment during the next 12-24 hours.

Here’s a satellite image of Henrietta…and a looping shot of this hurricane as it spins towards the central Pacific

Looking further ahead, Henrietta will begin to move more westerly, and even west-southwesterly beyond 36 hours. This is good news for the Hawaiian Islands, as the center of this tropical storm is forecast to slide by to the south of the islands. The NHC calls for Henrietta to be downgraded to a tropical depression by early Sunday morning, to the southeast of the Big Island. As we get into early next week, the forecast has Henriette as a post-tropical cyclone well to the south of Kauai.

As this system moves west, there is a chance that larger than normal surf may impact our east and southeast sides of the islands. The system’s associated winds won’t be close enough to influence our area, although our trade winds may accelerate as it moves by to our south. It’s too early to know exactly what kind of rainfall impacts will occur, although the models are showing some increase in precipitation…especially over and near the Big Island.

Meanwhile, former tropical cyclone Gil in the central Pacific, has been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone. There may be some minor increase in our trade winds as what’s left of Gil moves by to our south. There may also be some increase in shower activity in the Hawaiian Islands…as the northern fringe of the now retired system moves by to our south as well. The danger from Gil is now gone, with the primary focus for the islands now being directed to hurricane Henriette following closely to the east. Here’s a satellite image showing what’s left of Gil to the east-southeast of Hawaii, along with Henriette.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm Mangkhut (10W) in the South China Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm Mangkhut (10W) in the South China Sea

Tropical storm Mangkhut is located approximately 92 NM south of Hanoi, Vietnam. This weakening TC has tracked west-northwest at 13 knots (15 mph) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows the deep convective bands associated with this storm having collapsed…as they begin to encounter the physical terrain features of Vietnam. Mangkhut is poised to make landfall approximately 65 NM south of Hanoi over the next several hours. The system will quickly weaken as land interaction occurs…leading to dissipation within 24 hours. Winds will be gusty as this system moves inland, with heavy precipitation leading to some localized flooding.


Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical Cyclone Henriette (08E)

NHC textual forecast warning
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Elsewhere…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Mangkhut (10W)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area