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Jul
12
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the Caribbean Islands-far western Atlantic Ocean area

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the Caribbean Islands-far western Atlantic Ocean area

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is continuing to carry a low chance of development, for the remnant clouds and showers from former tropical cyclone Chantal…which is lingering over the Bahamas today. The primary reason that this area has such a low chance of regenerating into a TC, is the upper level winds above this tropical disturbance. Here is a NASA satellite image of the clouds associated with former tropical storm Chantal.

These clouds are currently moving north into the Atlantic Ocean to the east of Florida…at about 10 mph. The NHC confirms that these clouds remain rather disorganized, and development continues to be not likely. There is such a low chance, that the NHC continues to cancel any Air Force reconnaissance missions into this area.

Nonetheless, the remains of Chantal are bringing heavy rains, and locally gusty winds to the northwest Bahamas today. These leftover clouds from Chantal are expected to spread northwards over the waters offshore from the southeast United States this weekend. As was the case in yesterday’s report, none of the computer weather models are predicting any further tropical cyclone activity through the next week.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC…ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL…IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY WILL BE CANCELLED.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico