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Jul
11
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 07W (Soulik) remains active over the northwestern Pacific…located approximately 248 NM south of Kadena AB (Strengthening typhoon…sustained winds of 95 knots, with gusts to near 115 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and typhoon Soulik in the Western Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones and typhoon Soulik in the northwestern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and typhoon Soulik in the Western Pacific...close up view

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones and typhoon Soulik in the northwestern Pacific…close-up view

Typhoon Soulik (07W) remains active over the northwestern Pacific, and continues to be a dangerous tropical cyclone. This JTWC satellite picture shows this typhoon to the east of Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds were 95 knots (109 mph)…while moving to the west at near 12 knots (14 mph).

Here’s a NASA satellite image of Typhoon Soulik, which was captured early today…showing that the central eye wall was filled with clouds, which can be a sign of weakening of the system. There has been a corresponding reduction in wind speeds associated with this dynamic typhoon. Nonetheless, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for some addition strengthening over the next 12-24 hours…gaining 10 knots of sustained winds before a weakening trend begins. These very strong winds are causing wave heights of 38 feet over the open ocean.

Typhoon Soulik continues to track far northeast of the Philippine Islands. According to the JTWC, Soulik is forecast to move just south of Japan’s Ishigaki-jima Island early Friday morning (July 12th). It then moves on a path that takes it across the far northern part of Taiwan…and on towards the mainland China coast for a landfall on July 13th.

Open ocean mariners should give this dynamic typhoon a wide berth. Residents and coastal boaters near the small island of Ishigaki-jima should be making whatever preparations that are available, as the center of this typhoon moves very close…or nearly direction overhead! Meanwhile, most of Taiwan should expect very heavy weather, along with exceptionally high surf and storm surge along the east facing coasts, wrapping around to other parts of that island as well. The most intense part of this typhoon, the infamous northeast quadrant, will  mostly remain offshore from Taiwan.

Satellite imagery of this typhoon shows it to be a large system, which is carrying copious amounts of heavy precipitation. This rainfall will cause widespread problems for transportation, along with the potential for flooding and mudslides in Taiwan. Thereafter, the coast of mainland China will be taking a battering with surf, surge, rip currents, and localized flooding…as Soulik makes landfall there on Saturday. The interaction of Soulik with Taiwan will take some toll on its strength, so that the China coast will see less severe conditions than what Taiwan will have put up with. Soulik may be downgraded from a typhoon to a tropical storm just before arriving on the China coast.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Soulik)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area