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Jul
10
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 03L (Chantal) is moving across the Caribbean Sea and islands along its path…located approximately 335 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica (Weakening tropical storm…sustained winds of 45 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and tropical storm Chantal moving through the Caribbean Sea / Islands

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and tropical storm Chantal moving through the Caribbean Sea / Islands

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows tropical storm Chantal moving through Caribbean Sea and islands. The current position of this storm, just south of the Central Dominican Republic coast, shows an area of clouds which are affecting Haiti and the Dominican Republic…bringing heavy rainfall and flooding.  There are still approximately a third of a million people who are still residing in flimsy shelters, three years after the January 2010 earthquake that devastated that poor country.

This fast moving tropical storm is moving rapidly along at 29 mph, in a westerly direction. As this system encounters the high mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba soon, it will find unfavorable conditions for any further intensification.  Here’s a looping satellite image of TS Chantal as it weakens with its interaction with the physical terrain features of the islands in its path. This NHC graphical track map shows this path…as this tropical storm becomes a diminished tropical depression as early as later today.

Here’s a stunning satellite image of Chantal taken early today…provided by NASA

Here’s what the various hurricane models are showing for TS Chantal…all over the map so to speak – along with the Ensemble Members

The current westerly track is expected to swing to the west-northwest and northwest over the next 48 hours…with a gradual decrease in forward speed as well. This path will take Chantal between eastern Cuba and Jamaica tonight, and then emerge over the Florida Straits Thursday night.

According to the NHC:

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING…AND REACH HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT…AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE…ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES…WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL: CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA…CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Chantal)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas


ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico