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Jul
09
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Post-Tropical cyclone 05E (Erick) is dissipating over the northeast Pacific…located approximately 65 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico (sustained winds of 30 mph) – Final Advisory

Tropical cyclone 07W (Soulik)
remains active over the western Pacific…located approximately 678 NM east-southeast of Kadena AB (Strengthening typhoon…sustained winds of 95 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with post-tropical cyclone Erick in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with post-tropical cyclone Erick in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

Post-tropical storm Erick is running out of steam offshore of southern Baja California, and has been given its last advisory by the NHC this morning.  Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image.  Dissipating Erick has been bringing rainfall and rough surf  along the Baja California coasts recently. This precipitation and higher than normal surf should taper off soon.

As now retired Erick is over cool sea water, offshore from the western Baja California coast, and about to move over even cooler waters to the west…regeneration of deep convection (thunderstorms) is unlikely. Former Erick will gradually wind down now, becoming a remnant low pressure system in the process.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and typhoon Soulik in the Western Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and typhoon Soulik in the Western Pacific

Typhoon Soulik (07W) remains active over the northwestern Pacific, and is a dangerous tropical cyclone. This JTWC satellite picture shows that Typhoon Soulik has a well developed eye wall near the center of this strengthening typhoon. Maximum sustained winds, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), were 95 knots (109 mph)…while moving to the west-northwest at near 12 knots (14 mph).

JTWC forecasters expect this storm to intensify further, reaching 115 knots (132 mph) within 24 hours…along with gusts of 135 knots (155 mph). Typhoon Soulik continues moving away from the Marianas Islands, and is expected to continue in a west-northwest direction over the next several days. Soulik is currently forecast to track far north of the Philippine Islands, and then come close to northern Taiwan, before making landfall in southeastern mainland China, in the Zhejiang Province…well south of Shanghai later this week.

Open ocean mariners should give this dynamic typhoon a wide berth, while residents and coastal boaters near the small island of Ishigakijima should be making whatever preparations that are available, as this typhoon takes aim on this area. Meanwhile, north and northeastern Taiwan should expect heavy weather, along with very high surf in about three days. Thereafter, the coast of mainland China will be taking a major battering…as Soulik makes landfall there on Saturday.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Post-tropical Cyclone 05E (Erick) – Final Advisory

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Soulik)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area