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Jul
09
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 03L (Chantal) remains active as it moves into the Caribbean Sea…located approximately 55 miles northwest of St. Lucia (Strengthening tropical storm…sustained winds of 60 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and tropical storm Chantal moving into the Caribbean Islands

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and tropical storm Chantal moving into the Caribbean Islands

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows tropical storm Chantal moving out of the Atlantic Ocean…into the Caribbean Sea. This fast moving tropical storm is moving rapidly along at 25 knots (29 mph), in a west-northwest direction. This fast paced motion should finally slow down some over the next couple of days, at about the same time it takes on a more northwesterly track towards the Bahamas. The NHC is forecasting some modest strengthening over the next 24 hours. Here’s a looping satellite image of TS Chantal, as it spins quickly through the Lesser Antilles Islands into the Caribbean Sea.

Here’s what the various hurricane models are showing for TS Chantal…as it pushes through the Caribbean Islands, with the bulk of the models showing it moving into the area offshore to the east of Florida as a tropical storm this weekend.

Here’s a close-up satellite image provided by NASA…taken late Monday. Meanwhile, tropical storm warnings remain up for Barbados, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Martinique, and Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border of Haiti. In addition, a TS watch is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Saint Vincent, Viequest and Culebra, Haiti, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos…and the southeastern Bahamas.

Rainfall is expected in the 2-4 inch range, with some precipitation amounts reaching 6 inches locally…more than enough to cause localized flooding and mudslides. Here’s a close up satellite image and looping radar image as Chantal’s rainfall moves through Martinique.

Storm surge of 1-3 feet above normal tide levels can be expected in the Windward and Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, the surge is expected to be higher, reaching 2-4 feet.

TS Chantal’s center is expected to move into the eastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon into the evening hours, and near the Dominican Republic by July 10th Wednesday. Current forecasts from the NHC bring Chantal along the eastern coast of Florida by the weekend.

Here’s a graphical map, provided by the NOAA’s historical hurricane tracks website, showing the tracks of all TC’s originating July 15th or earlier…that pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands into the Caribbean. TS Chantal’s formation on July 8th is an usually early date for formation of the 2013 hurricane season’s third storm, which according to the record book, usually starts on the 13th of August. A large number of early season named storms is not necessarily a signal of an active season. This is according to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State’s seasonal hurricane forecasting team.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Chantal)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas


ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico