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Jul
08
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 05E (Erick) remains active over the northeast Pacific…located approximately 50 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. (Weakening tropical storm…sustained winds of 45 mph)

Tropical cyclone 07W (Soulik)
remains active over the western Pacific…located approximately 350 NM south-southeast of Iwo Jima (Strengthening tropical storm…sustained winds of 55 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with tropical storm Erick in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with tropical storm Erick in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

Tropical storm Erick remains active just offshore of the southern tip of Baja California.  Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this weakening tropical storm. TS Erick has been bringing rainfall and rough surf to the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico for the last several days…with some of the heaviest amounts reaching 2″ per hour.

A tropical storm warning is in force for Baja California from Santa Fe to La Paz, with rainfall amounts forecast by the NHC to be 1-3″ over this southern Baja peninsula. Meanwhile, rough surf and ocean swells are affecting southern Baja California, with life threatening surf conditions…and rip currents as well. TS Erick is moving towards the northwest at near 9 mph, continuing on this path for a couple more days, before turning to the west-northwest by Wednesday.

Meanwhile, recent tropical depression Dalila dissipated yesterday (Sunday)…with the remnant circulation and clouds moving very slowly to the southeast at only 1 mph.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and tropical storm Soulik in the Western Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and tropical storm Soulik in the Western Pacific

Tropical storm Soulik (07W) is active near the Marianas Islands in the northwestern Pacific. Here’s a great NASA satellite image of this strengthening tropical storm. This satellite picture shows that TS Soulik continues to gather its forces quickly, and has tightly curved bands of thunderstorms, which are wrapping around an eye-like feature near the center of the storms circulation. Maximum sustained winds, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) were 55 knots (63 mph)…while moving to the west at near 10 knots (12 mph).

JTWC forecasters expect this storm to intensify rapidly, reaching typhoon strength by Tuesday (July 9th). TS Soulik is moving away from the Marianas Islands, and is expected to continue in a west, then west-northwest direction over the next several days. Soulik is currently forecast to track north of the Philippine Islands, and affect northern Taiwan…before making landfall in southeastern mainland China, in the Zhejiang Province later this week.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Erick)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday morning

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Soulik)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area