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Jul
08
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 03L (Chantal) is now active over the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 550 miles east-south east of Barbados (Strengthening tropical storm…sustained winds of 45 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and tropical storm Chantal in the Atlantic Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation and tropical storm Chantal in the Atlantic Ocean

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows newly formed tropical storm Chantal, which skipped the tropical depression stage of its development. This fast moving tropical storm is speeding along at 23 knots (27 mph), in a west-northwest direction. This fast paced motion should finally slow down in about 72 hours, at about the same time it takes on a more northwesterly track. The NHC is forecasting some modest strengthening over the next 48 hours…while it remains over a warm sea surface, and favorably inclined environmental conditions. Here’s a looping satellite image of TS Chantal, as it spins quickly towards the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Thereafter, this third tropical cyclone of the 2013 hurricane season will begin interacting with the physical terrain features in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba…in about three days. This land impact, in addition to reaching an area of stronger vertical wind shear aloft, should take much of the wind out of Chantals sails from that point on…in its journey through the Caribbean Islands. By the way, here’s what the various hurricane models are showing for TS Chantal.

Here’s a close-up satellite image provided by NASA…late yesterday when it was off the coast of Brazil. Meanwhile, tropical storm warnings are now being hoisted for Barbado, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Martinique, and Guadeloupe, while TS warnings are in effect for Saint Vincent.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in these areas by early Tuesday morning. Rainfall is expected in the 2-4 inch range, with some precipitation amounts reaching 6 inches locally. These soaking rains, along with the rest of Chantal’s arsenal of heavy weather, will move into the eastern Caribbean after impacting the Lesser Antilles.

Here’s a graphical map, provided by the NOAA’s historical hurricane tracks website, showing the tracks of all TC’s originating July 15th or earlier…that pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands. TS Chantal’s formation on July 8th is an usually early date for formation of the 2013 hurricane season’s third storm, which according to the record book, usually starts on the 13th of August. A large number of early season named storms is not necessarily a signal of an active season. This is according to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State’s seasonal hurricane forecasting team.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Chantal)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico