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Jul
05
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 04E (Dalila) remains active over the northeast Pacific…located approximately 415 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Tropical depression…sustained winds of 35 mph)

Tropical cyclone 05E (Erick) remains active over the northeast Pacific…located approximately 265 miles southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening tropical storm…sustained winds of 60 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with tropical depression Dalila...and tropical storm Erick in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with tropical depression Dalila…and tropical storm Erick in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

There are two tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific Ocean today, one is powering up…while the other is weakening. Tropical depression Dalila, after being the third hurricane of the eastern Pacific hurricane season earlier this week, continues to weaken offshore from the Mexican coast.  It is located approximately 415 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds were down to only 35 mph, with a slow drift towards the west at near 3 mph. This general slow motion should continue for the next few days.   

Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this weakening tropical depression. Due to the close proximity of these two tropical cyclones, TD Dalila doesn’t have much of a future, as moderately strong southeasterly vertical wind shear above, is being generated by the outflow from nearby tropical storm Erick. Dalila is expected to become a remnant low pressure system in the day or two.

Here’s a NASA satellite image of both TD Dalila and TS Erick.

Newly formed Tropical storm Erick (05E) is the main threat at the moment, as it is active close to the coast, with storm warnings now in effect along Mexico’s beaches in that area. It is located about 265 miles southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph, with a movement towards the west-northwest at 10 mph. Here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for TS 05E.

Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for the coast of southwestern Mexico eastward to Zihautanejo and westward to La Fortuna, Mexico. There is also a tropical storm watch now in effect for the coast of southwestern Mexico from west of La Fortuna to Cabo Corrientes.

Those warnings and watches are in effect as of July 5 because Tropical Storm Erick is near the coast and strengthening. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Erick may strengthen to hurricane force by Saturday, July 6. That would make Erick the fourth hurricane of the eastern Pacific Hurricane season out of five storms to form.

Residents in the warning area can expect 3 to 5 inches over southwestern Oaxaca, southern Guerrero, southern Michoaca, Colima, and southern Jalisco, Mexico. The NHC noted that isolated totals could reach up to 8 inches in those areas. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area today, July 5 and on July 6. Coastal areas can also expect rough surf as Erick moves up the coast.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dalila)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Erick)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday morning

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area