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Jul
05
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the southwest Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the southwest Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows no active tropical cyclones…although an area of disturbed remains active in the southwest through central Gulf of Mexico. This area isn’t likely to develop into a tropical cyclone for the time being, with only a low 10% chance of generation over the next 48 hours. Moist conditions remain evident across much of the Gulf, which is due to a moist southerly flow of air at the surface, and a moist southwesterly flow aloft…continuing for the next day or two.

Here’s a looping IR satellite image of this area in the Gulf of Mexico. Part of the reason that this disturbance has such a low chance of developing, is that there’s 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) vertical wind shear above. At the same time, there’s dry air in parts of the Gulf of Mexico…which is interfering with development too. Looking ahead, somewhat more favorable environmental conditions are expected this weekend, although weather models aren’t showing any development of this system.

There appears to be a drift of this area northwest and north, which would bring locally heavy rains to the Texas and Louisiana coasts later this weekend. Estimates are running in the 1-3 inch range.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE…IF ANY…SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico