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Jul
03
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 04E (Dalila) remains active over the northeast Pacific…located approximately 255 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Hurricane…sustained winds of 75 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with hurricane Dalila in the northeastern Pacific Ocean...along with an area of disturbed weather with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with hurricane Dalila in the northeastern Pacific Ocean…along with an area of disturbed weather (circled in orange above) with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours

Category 1 Hurricane Dalila, the third hurricane of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, remains offshore from the Mexican coast, after dropping down into a tropical storm for a time yesterday.  It is located approximately 255 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 75 mph, with a slow drift towards the west-southwest at near 3 mph. A gradual turn towards the west will occur over the next couple of days…then begin a path a bit more towards the west-northwest this weekend. Here’s a NASA satellite picture of hurricane Dalila, that was taken late in the day yesterday…just after it attained the hurricane status again.

Although the storm is off the coast of Mexico, coastal areas can expect very rough surf for the next couple of days, as the storm continues moving westward. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that swells generated by Dalila are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, from near Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

As was the case yesterday, there’s still that area of disturbed weather that remains active just off the coast of southern Mexico. This low stretches for several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The NHC notes that environmental conditions will become increasingly favorable…and is being given a medium 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Here’s a satellite image showing this area, along with hurricane Dalila to its northwest.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for hurricane Dalila…which shows a fair amount of spread coming up after 12 hours or so. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for invest 97E as well. The general idea coming from the National Hurricane Center is that hurricane Dalila will gradually weaken starting after 36 hours, as it encounters colder sea water and stronger shear above the storm…becoming a post-tropical low pressure system within 120 hours. Here’s a satellite image showing Dalila in the lower right hand corner of the picture. Here’s a close-up color enhanced looping shot of Dalila over the last three days.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dalila)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

MEANWHILE, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…50 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday morning

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area