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Jul
03
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the northwest Caribbean Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the northwest Caribbean Sea

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows no active tropical cyclones…although a broad area of disturbed is evident in the eastern Gulf of Mexico to near the west coast of Florida, extending southward across western Cuba into the Caribbean Sea…and finally over the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This area isn’t likely to develop into a tropical cyclone for the time being, with only a low 10% chance of generation over the next 48 hours.

Here’s a looping IR satellite image of this area in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Part of the reason that this disturbance has such a low chance of developing, is that there’s 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) vertical wind shear above. At the same time, there’s dry air in the western Gulf of Mexico…which is interfering with development too. Looking ahead, more favorable environmental conditions are expected, although weather models aren’t showing any development of this system.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR 10 PERCENT… OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico