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Jul
02
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 06W (Rumbia) is dissipating inland over southern China…located approximately 231 miles east of Hanoi, Vietnam (Dissipating tropical storm…sustained winds of 50 knots, and gusts to near 65 knots) – Final Warning

Tropical cyclone 04E (Dalila) remains active over the northeast Pacific…located approximately 195 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Tropical storm…sustained winds of 65 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones and winds, for dissipating tropical cyclone 06W (Rumbia)…inland over Southern China

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones and winds, for dissipating tropical cyclone 06W (Rumbia)…inland over Southern China

Tropical storm 06W (Rumbia) has moved inland over southern China, and dissipating…located approximately 231 NM east of Hanoi, Vietnam. Rumbia has been moving northwestward at 11 knots (13 knots) during the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a weakening trend in the overall structure of of the system, as deep convection has continued to decrease. Upper air analysis reveals a poor environment, with strong 25-35 knot (29-40 mph) vertical wind shear. As whats left of Rumbia moves inland, it will encounter the frictional effects of land, further eroding this dissipating system. As a result, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its final warning on this system.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with tropical storm Dalila in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with tropical storm Dalila in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

Tropical storm Dalila remains active offshore from the southern Mexican coast, although peaked in strength around 11pm last night…after reaching hurricane status briefly. It is located approximately 195 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph, with a slow drift towards the west at near 2 mph. A gradual turn towards the west has occurred, which may trend to the west-southwest over the next couple of days.

Here’s a satellite picture of TS Dalila, along with a new tropical disturbance that has developed to the southeast. This new area of disturbed weather has formed off the coasts of southwest Mexico and Guatemala. This low stretches for several hundred miles from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to southwestern Guatemala. The NHC notes that environmental conditions will become increasingly favorable…and is being given a medium 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Here’s a satellite image showing this area, along with TS Dalila to its northwest.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for TS Dalila…which shows a fair amount of spread coming up after 12 hours or so. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for invest 97E as well. The general idea coming from the National Hurricane Center is that tropical storm Dalila will gradually weaken through the next 96 hours, becoming a post-tropical low pressure system within 120 hours. Here’s a satellite image showing TS Dalila in the lower right hand corner of the picture. Here’s a close-up color enhanced looping shot of Dalila over the last 24 hours.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dalila)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED… ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Rumbia) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area