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Jul
01
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 06W (Rumbia) remains active over the South China Sea…located approximately 217 miles southwest of Hong Kong (Weakening typhoon…sustained winds of 65 knots, and gusts to near 80 knots)

Tropical cyclone 04E (Dalila) remains active over the northeast Pacific…located approximately 130 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Strengthening tropical storm…sustained winds of 60 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones and winds, for tropical cyclone 06W ()…over the South China Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones and winds, for tropical cyclone 06W (Rumbia)…over the South China Sea

Typhoon 06W (Rumbia) remains active over the South China Sea, located approximately 217 NM southwest of Hong Kong. Satellite imagery shows that there has been a slight weakening trend over the past six hours, although at the same time, TS Rumbia has retained tightly curved bands…which wrap into the low level circulation center.  Environmental conditions are becoming less supportive, with increasing vertical wind shear above this minimal typhoon, along with land interaction…with the eastern coast of Hainan Island, China.

Typhoon 06W is forecast to track northwest to north-northwest through the forecast period. 06W has now peaked in strength, and will soon be over Hainan Island. As the system moves over land, and encounters the stronger vertical wind shear above, it will weaken rather quickly…as it loses its connection to the warm waters of the South China Sea. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) suggests that TY 06W will dissipate within 36 hours over southern China.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with tropical storm Dalila in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with tropical storm Dalila in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

Tropical storm Dalila remains active offshore from the southern Mexican coast, as it continues to hug the coast quite closely. This close proximity is keeping tropical storm warnings in effect for the southwestern coast of Mexico…from Punta San Telmo to La Fortuna. Additionally, a tropical storm watch is in effect north of La Fortuna. This translates into a potential for heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches over the coastal regions of the Mexican states of Micohcan, Colima and Jalisco.

It is located approximately 130 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 60 mph, with a movement towards the northwest at near 9 mph. A gradual turn towards the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today into the night…with TS Dalila becoming a hurricane briefly on Tuesday. Thereafter, this system will encounter a layer of mid to upper level dry air, which should cause this tropical cyclone to weaken from that point onwards.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for TS Dalila…which shows a fair amount of spread coming up after 12 hours or so. Here’s a satellite image showing TS Dalila in the lower right hand corner of the picture. Here’s another good satellite picture showing how close to the coast TS Dalila is on this first day of July. Here’s a looping infrared satellite image of Dalila developing offshore from the southern Mexican coast. Finally, here’s a close-up color enhanced looping shot of Dalila.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dalila)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday morning

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Rumbia)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area