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Jun
28
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 06W is now active in the Philippine Sea…located approximately 452 miles east-southeast of Manila, Philippines (Strengthening tropical depression…sustained winds of 30 knots, and gusts to near 40 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones and winds, for tropical cyclone 06W…over the Philippine Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones and winds, for tropical cyclone 06W…over the Philippine Sea

Tropical depression 06W is active in the Philippine Sea, located approximately 452 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines. Satellite imagery shows that the system has maintained a broad, consolidating low level circulation center. The convective banding remains fragmented, although has deepened, and wrapped into this center. Upper level analysis indicates that there is low to moderate vertical wind shear of 10-20 knots (12-23 mph) over this system. The sea surface temperatures are running 28-30 degrees celsius (82-86F) in the area under TD 06W.

This tropical depression will soon make landfall over Samar, Philippines within 12 hours or sooner. This system is expected to intensify slightly before reaching Samar, and then weaken as it moves across the Philippine Islands. Physical terrain features will cause friction and drag as this tropical cyclone moves across the islands, before entering the South China Sea near Lingayen Gulf…within about 40 hours. Warm sea water temperatures in the South China Sea will allow some strengthening again, with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast calling for it to reach tropical storm classification at near 50 knots (58 mph) within about 72 hours. Thereafter, a second landfall is expected near Hong Kong…dissipating inland over China thereafter.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance  (circled in orange) in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now showing a large tropical disturbance several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms within this area of lowered pressure offshore from southern Mexico. Weather models suggest that this system will become better organized in the near future…as it moves in a northwest to northerly direction. Favorable environment conditions are giving this area of disturbed weather a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next day or two. This area is being called invest 96E, as shown in this satellite image…which also shows the swirl of what’s left from recent TC Cosme – along with the looping version of this satellite picture.

 

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…40 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday morning

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06W

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area