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Jun
27
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 03E (Cosme) remains active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 725 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico (Weakening tropical storm…sustained winds of 35 knots, and gusts to near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with tropical storm Cosme in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with tropical storm Cosme in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

Tropical storm 03E (Cosme) remains active over the northeastern Pacific…located about 725 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  This third tropical cyclone of the season in the eastern Pacific, brought strong hurricane force winds (80 mph) to Clarion Island, Mexico, as it moved by just 15 miles east of that small island. At the same time, the northernmost clouds associated with Cosme…extended over the southern Baja California peninsula yesterday as well. Otherwise, the greatest danger has been to Mexico’s Pacific coast, where large swells were breaking from Acapulco to Los Mochis, and along the southern Baja coast recently.

TS Cosme continues to weaken, and is now barely a tropical storm…on its way to quickly becoming a tropical depression. Cosme has been moving towards the west-northwest at 16 knots (16 mph). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that satellite imagery now shows that this tropical cyclone has been reduced to a swirl of low to middle level clouds, with no organized convection.  The NHC forecast has TS Cosme moving west-northwest…before curving more westward during the next 24-48 hours. As this system moves over progressively cooler waters…Cosme will become a remnant low pressure system later today.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for tropical storm Cosme, which are all still tightly grouped…with just one outlier to the north.  Here’s the NOAA sea surface temperatures graphic, showing cooler water ahead for Cosme. This will cause a steady weakening over the next 12 hours, bringing Cosme down in strength in the process. Here’s a looping enhanced IR satellite image of TS Cosme. Here’s a color enhanced satellite image showing what’s left of Cosme in the lower right hand side…with the west coast and Hawaii in the picture as well. Finally, here’s a full disk view of the Pacific, with Cosme rotating in a counter-clockwise motion away from Mexico.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the Philippine Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the Philippine Sea

Meanwhile, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has an area under investigation, located approximately 670 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines. Satellite imagery shows that a low level circulation center has become more defined during the past 12 hours. Wind shear aloft over this area is low, with only 5-10 knots (6-12 mph) blowing. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots (17-23 mph). Given these favorable environmental conditions, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is giving this tropical disturbance a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

 

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Cosme)

NHC textual forecast warning
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday morning

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area