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Jun
06
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 01L (Andrea) is approaching the coast of Florida…located approximately 110 miles west of Tampa, Florida (Sustained winds of 60 mph, with gusts to near 69 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones and winds, for tropical cyclone 01L (Andrea)…in the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones and winds, for tropical cyclone 01L (Andrea)…in the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying NHC forecast positions, segments and winds, for tropical cyclone 01L (Andrea)…over the Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying NHC forecast positions, segments and winds, for tropical cyclone 01L (Andrea)…over the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical storm Andrea is now active in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, as it takes aim on the west coast of Florida. This storm has become stronger than the original expectations…with gusty 60 mph winds blowing around the center of this tropical system. Radar images show that bands of deep convection are moving ashore, bringing heavy rains to the area. Here’s the looping radar image from Tampa, Florida. TS Andrea has made a turn to the  northeast, and is in the process of accelerating. This will bring it across the Florida coast soon, followed by a path across Florida, then quickly moving up along the east coast during the next 48 hours. In other words, it will be racing up the coast at a quick pace. Here’s a satellite image showing the big picture of the Gulf of Mexico, and the eastern seaboard of the United States.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggests that TS Andrea won’t quite reach the 75 mph hurricane status before making landfall over Florida. As is always the case, once this tropical storm moves off the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and over land,  it will lose a bit of strength. Nonetheless, Andrea is forecast to maintain her tropical storm status through the 120 hour forecast period. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and some storm surge are the primary threats today, as this first tropical storm of the 2013 hurricane season makes contact with the coastal sections of the Florida Peninsula. The NHC mentions in their discussion that storm surge flooding is likely, reaching approximately 2-5 feet. Isolated tornadoes are now occurring, with a tornado watch in effect over parts of south and central Florida. As this storm moves up along the east coast, and then into New England, rainfall will be the primary concern, although those gusty tropical storm force winds will make their impact felt as well.

According to Wunderground website: Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea’s formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season’s first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, there had already been two named storms by this point in the season–Alberto and Beryl.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will continue to monitor this situation.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 01L (Andrea)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA  satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico