PDC Weather Wall

May 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 151 NM southeast of Kolkata, India (Sustained winds of 50 knots, with gusts to near 65 knots)

Tropical cyclone 01E (Alvin) remains active in the far eastern Pacific Ocean…located approximately 700 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico (Sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC positions, segments, error cones, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…in the Bay of Bengal

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…in the Bay of Bengal

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 246 NM south of Kolkata, India. This cyclone has tracked north-northeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that the low level circulation center remains under an area of deep thunderstorms, but is difficult to identify…as this convection remains poorly organized.

TC 01B is now moving under a lighter vertical wind shear aloft, blowing at only 10 knots (12 mph). TC Mahasen will maintain a northeasterly track, with only a slight increase in strength during the next 12 hours. This minor intensification will be short lived however, as this storm gets in closer to the coast of Bangladesh. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast has this system making landfall in about 24 hours…with weakening and dissipation expected overland within 36 hours.

Ships and small boats in this far northern part of the Bay of Bengal should remain well away from the influence of this storm. The fact that this storm is expected to reach only 50 knots (58 mph), rather than the previously forecast 70 knots (81 mph), is a very good thing. This is because the storm surge and pounding high surf, that would have inundated the low lying coastal plain, will be much less severe now. Nonetheless, there will be strong and gusty winds, very heavy flooding rainfall, and some high surf and surge as the storm reaches the coast, which will make for dangerous conditions for coastal residents. This storm will quickly weaken and dissipate as it interacts with the physical terrain features of Bangladesh, although bringing rain and gusty winds well inland…into Bangladesh and northern Myanmar as well.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01E…in the eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01E (Alvin)…in the eastern Pacific

Tropical cyclone 01E (Alvin) has spun up, as the first tropical cyclone of the 2013 hurricane season, in the eastern Pacific. It was located about 650 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, and moving generally towards the west at near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph, with higher gusts to near 45 mph. Strengthening is forecast to occur during the next 48 hours, with this tropical depression becoming a tropical storm, taking on the name Alvin…as soon as later today.

The NHC forecast suggests that TS Alvin would then go on to become a hurricane by early this Friday morning. It would peak in strength then through Sunday night, dropping back down to a tropical storm by early next Monday morning. It’s moving by well offshore from the Mexican coast, with no land or islands in its path at this time. Ships in the area should steer clear of this strengthening tropical cyclone through the rest of this week, into the first half of next week.