PDC Weather Wall

May 2013
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Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 377 NM south of Kolkata, India (Sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with JTWC positions, segments, error cones, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…in the Bay of Bengal

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 377 NM south of Kolkata, India. This cyclone has tracked northeastward at 09 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that deep convection (thunderstorms) have built back over the low level circulation center during the last several hours. Upper air analysis indicates that vertical wind shear has begun to decrease, showing a moderately strong 15-20 knots (17-23 mph)…supporting the increased convection noted above.

TC 01B is forecast to remain on a general northeasterly track, as it continues to move towards the Bangladesh coast. Along the way, TC Mahasen will be moving over very warm sea surface temperatures, reaching 29-30C (84-86F), which is favorable for increased strengthening. The easing of the vertical wind shearing aloft, will support this storm in gradually reaching the typhoon level in approximately 48 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast has this system making landfall in about 72 hours…with weakening and dissipation as in moves inland thereafter.

Ships in the Bay of Bengal should be steering clear of this now strengthening storm, from its present position…all the way to the coast. Depending upon exactly where this storm comes ashore, there is a great danger to the coastal residents. The elevation of the land areas is locally very low, and highly populated. This would provide an opportunity for very dangerous storm surge and high surf conditions…potentially a great threat to low lying areas! Strong winds and very heavy, flooding rainfall would accompany this dissipating storm inland over Bangladesh into northern Myanmar as well.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with JTWC positions, segments, error cones, and winds and population densities, for tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…in the Bay of Bengal

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC positions, segments, winds and population densities, for tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…in the Bay of Bengal

The map above shows the forecast track for TC 01B, as it moves in a northeasterly direction towards the Bangladesh coast. This storm will move inland just to the east of the most highly populated areas, although will definitely have a major impact on the low lying areas fronting the coast. We can see the very light blue color of the Bay of Bengal, indicating the shallow waters of this delta region near the coast. This will afford high surf and dangerous storm surge waters to push inland a distance.

The local population along the immediate coastal plain, and for some distance inland, should be making preparations for the arrival of this high water. Depending upon what local emergency managers say, there could be a call for evacuating some areas near the storms entry into coast…and to the right of there for a distance as well. Heavy precipitation will add to the seriousness of this flooding threat, along with the attendant strong and gusty winds.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

Special Tropical Weather Outlook: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY…AND ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image