PDC Weather Wall

May 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 630 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India (Sustained winds of 50 knots, with gusts to near 65 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with JTWC positions, segments, error cones, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…in the Bay of Bengal

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 630 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India. This cyclone has tracked northwestward at 09 knots over the past six hours. Upper air analysis indicates favorable westward outflow, although that is being offset of moderate 15-20 knot (17-23 mph) vertical wind shear.

TC 01B is currently in a weak steering environment, and is expected to slowly track north over the next 24 hours. Thereafter, Mahasen is expected to accelerate, and track northeast. As this tropical cyclone gains latitude, a gradual intensification is expected…as the upper wind shear relaxes. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) suggests that a peak intensity of 70 knots (81 mph) in 72 hours.

As Mahasen moves towards the coast, upper level wind shear will increase, and the system begins interacting with land…with dissipation expected within 120 hours. There is a wide spread in model solutions to the upcoming forecast period. The JTWC has a low level of confidence in the outer forecast period, due to the variance of the models, especially as TC 01B curves towards the coast. The forecast track brings this system inland very near Chittagong, and Cox Bazar (Bangladesh)…with Chittagong being the second largest city in the country.

Ships in the Bay of Bengal should be steering clear of this soon to be strengthening storm, from its present position…all the way to the coast. Depending upon exactly where this storm comes ashore, there is a great danger to the coastal residents. The elevation of the land areas is locally very low, and highly populated. This would provide an opportunity for very dangerous storm surge and high surf conditions…potentially a great threat to low lying areas! Strong winds and very heavy, flooding rainfall would accompany the storm inland as well.