PDC Weather Wall

May 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 24S (Jamala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 820 NM east of Diego Garcia (Sustained winds of 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots)

Tropical cyclone 01B has formed in the North Indian Ocean…located approximately 1009 NM south of Chittagong, Bangladesh (Sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, strengthening tropical cyclone 24S (Jamala), with JTWC positions, segments, and winds…over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 24S, now taking on the name Jamala, remains active over the waters of the South Indian Ocean, located approximately 820 NM east of the small island of Diego Garcia. This system has tracked south-southeast at a slow 03 knots during the past six hours. Satellite imagery reveals a partially exposed low level circulation center, with a large cluster of deep thunderstorms displaced over the western part of the storm. Surface winds remain 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots…matching yesterday’s strength.

TC 24S is located within a marginal environment, under strong easterly vertical wind shear, which is running 30-40 knots (35-46 mph)…although offset by favorable poleward outflow. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) mentions that the strong wind shear is forecast to weaken, allowing for further consolidation, and intensification. TC 24S should peak at about 70 knots (81 mph) by the 72 hour mark, and then gradually weaken thereafter.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, TAOS Estimated Wind Impacts, strengthening tropical cyclone 01B, with JTWC positions, segments, and winds…over the North Indian Ocean

A new tropical cyclone has formed in the north Indian Ocean, called 01B…located approximately 1009 NM south of Chittagong, Bangladesh. This new cyclone has tracked northwestward at 07 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center, with improved deep convective banding. At the same time however, the vertical wind shear remains moderate to strong, 20-30 knots (23-35 mph).

TC 01B is forecast to track northwestward across the Bay of Bengal, with a turn poleward with time. TC 01B is expected to peak at 90 knots (104 mph) by the 96 hour mark. This system will generate heavy swell conditions, so that ships in the area should steer clear, as this storm increases in strength. It will remain away from any land/island areas over the next several days.