PDC Weather Wall

May 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 24S remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 774 NM east of Diego Garcia (Sustained winds of 40 knots,
with gusts to near 50 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, strengthening tropical cyclone 24S, with JTWC positions, segments, and winds…over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 24S continues to churn the waters of the South Indian Ocean, located approximately 774 NM east of the small island of Diego Garcia. This system has tracked south-southeast at a slow 04 knots during the past six hours. Satellite imagery reveals an exposed low level circulation center, with a large cluster of deep thunderstorms displaced over the western part of the storm. Surface winds were currently 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots.

TC 24S is located within a marginal environment, under strong easterly vertical wind shear, which is running 30-40 knots (35-46 mph)…although offset by favorable poleward outflow. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) mentions that the strong wind shear is forecast to weaken, allowing for further consolidation, and intensification. TC 24S should peak at about 65 knots (75 mph) by the 72 hour mark, and then gradually weaken thereafter.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in orange) in the North Indian Ocean…that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours – and TC 24S to this areas south-southwest

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) in the North Indian Ocean…that has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours – and TC 24S to this areas south-southwest

An area of disturbed weather remains active in the north Indian Ocean, circled in yellow above, to the north-northeast of tropical cyclone 24S. When tropical cyclones form closely together, and in different hemisphere’s like this, they are typically called twins. This hasn’t happened yet, and probably won’t…as the JTWC is now giving this tropical disturbance a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours, down from medium yesterday.

This area of disturbed weather is located approximately 690 NM east of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Satellite imagery shows flaring convection, associated with an elongated low level circulation center. This center is showing weakening cyclonic winds, which are now blowing only 10-15 knots (12-17 mph). At the same time, the upper vertical shear is 10-20 knots (12-23 mph). Sea surface temperatures under this disturbance are 28C (82-83F).