PDC Weather Wall

May 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 23P (Zane) remains active in the northwestern Coral Sea…located approximately 190 NM north-northeast of Cairns, Australia (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 55 knots, with gusts to near 70 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, strengthening tropical cyclone 23P (Zane), with JTWC positions, segments, error cones and winds…over the northwestern Coral Sea

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues to report on TC Zane in the northwestern Coral Sea, located approximately 190 NM north-northeast of Cairns, Australia. This tropical cyclone has tracked westward at near 07 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center…to the northwest of an area of rapidly decaying deep convection. The intensity forecast has been decreased from the previous forecast, due to the presence of an increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear over TC 23P.

During the past 12 hours, TC Zane has undergone a definite weakening, and is forecast to continue this weakening trend through the next 24 hours. After this 24 hour period, TC 23P strikes the Queensland coast, moving over the Cape York Peninsula. This tropical system will then re-emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. As it moves back over the Gulf however, it is forecast to weaken through the remainder of the forecast period, due to increasing vertical wind shear…and a generally unfavorable environment for restrengthening.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, tropical cyclone Zane is being rated a category 1 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 95km/h, and is moving in a west-northwest direction towards the east coast of Cape York Peninsula. It is expected to cross the coast between Orford Ness and Cape Sidmouth as a weak Category 1 cyclone, or a tropical low Thursday morning.

Gale winds may develop along the coastal areas between Cape Grenville and Cape Flattery this morning, possibly extending through the northwestern Peninsula district during the day.

As the cyclone approaches and then crosses the coast, abnormally high tides are expected between Cape Grenville and Coen, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront areas. Locally heavy rainfall, associated with thunderstorms…may lead to flash flooding over the Peninsula district today.