Tropical cyclone 21S (Imelda) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 360 NM east-northeast of La Reunion island (Weakening tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 65 knots, and gusts to near 80 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 21S (Imelda), with JTWC positions, segments and winds…over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 21S (Imelda) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 360 NM east-northeast of La Reunion island. This tropical cyclone has recently peaked in strength, and will be gradually weakening further through the rest of its life cycle. It has tracked south-southeast at near 9 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a large dense overcast feature, which is hiding the low level circulation center. The overall structure of this tropical system is becoming elongated, while the associated convection surrounding the low level circulation center, is beginning to weaken.

The initial intensity of TC 21S was 65 knot winds, which is down from 80 knots as recently as yesterday. Upper level analysis indicates that Imelda is south of an area of moderate 15-20 knot (17-23 mph) vertical wind shear. At the same time, poleward outflow of air remains favorable. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is showing a gradual weakening through the forecast period, as TC 21S encounters a strengthening wind shear aloft. The increasing wind shear should cause the dissipation of this system within 72 hours.

The current position of 21S is to the east-northeast of La Reunion island, and well to the east of Madagascar. This system took a rather abrupt turn to the south, after tracking westward for much of its life cycle. 21S

then tracked generally south-southeast for several days, which it continues to do at the time of this writing. The JTWC forecasts a subtle shift to the south soon, before yet another abrupt turn occurs, this time…back to the west, or west-southwest. This will bring this weakening tropical cyclone closer to La Reunion island by mid-week.