PDC Weather Wall

March 2013
S	M	T	W	T	F	S
« Feb		Apr »
	1	2
3	4	5	6	7	8	9
10	11	12	13	14	15	16
17	18	19	20	21	22	23
24	25	26	27	28	29	30
31

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 19P (Sandra) remains active in the Coral Sea…located approximately 325 NM southwest of Noumea, New Caledonia (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, weakening tropical cyclone 19P (Sandra), with JTWC positions, segments and winds...over the southern Coral Sea

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues warnings on Tropical Cyclone 19P (Sandra), in the southern Coral Sea. TC 19P is located approximately 325 NM southwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Total precipitable water imagery indicates dry air is wrapping into the low level circulation center. As a result, there’s a separation between the central core of tropical moisture, from the larger source of moisture to the northeast of the center.

Upper air analysis indicates high levels, 30-40 knots (35-46 mph) of vertical wind shear over this weakening storm. Continued inflow of dry air, in combination with the strong winds aloft, will cause TC Sandra to begin its transition to an extra-tropical system within the next 12 hours.

Sandra is now well southwest of New Caledonia, far enough away that the associated strong winds are remaining well offshore. TC 19P is moving through the southern Coral Sea towards the northern Tasman Sea. Meanwhile, this system is remaining far offshore from the eastern Australian coast too. Thus, the only danger is for ships in the path of this storm, which should continue to steer clear.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...with an area of disturbed weather (circled in red) that has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...near the Gulf of Carpenteria

Meanwhile, this area of disturbed weather remains more or less in the area of the Gulf of Carpentaria. This tropical disturbance is located approximately 85 NM west of the tip of Cape York Peninsula, Australia. Satellite imagery shows an elongated low level circulation center…within a region of expansive troughing over the Gulf of Carpenteria.

This tropical disturbance has winds near the center running between 25-30 knots (29-35 mph). Upper air analysis shows vertical wind shear is light to moderate 10-20 knots (12-23 mph). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is giving this system a high chance of developing, due to favorable environmental conditions now through the next 06-24 hours.