PDC Weather Wall

March 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 15S (Gino) remains active in the south Indian Ocean…located approximately 875 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 85 knots, with gusts to near 105 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 15S (Gino), with JTWC positions, segments, error cones and winds...in the south Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 15S (Gina) remains active in the south Indian Ocean Wednesday, located approximately 875 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Gina has continued moving south-southwestward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a slight weakening of the deepest convection (thunderstorms) around the low level circulation center. The central eye has become less organized over the past 12 hours…and becoming additionally obscured by convection.

The intensity assessed for the JTWC advisory #6, showed sustained winds had increased to 85 knots (98 mph), with gusts to near 105 knots (121 mph). It appears that Gina has peaked in strength now, with steadily diminishing wind speeds forecast through the remainder of its life. This system will drop below 65 knots (75 mph) by 36 hours…reaching only 35 knots with 45 knot gusts (40-52 mph) by 72 hours.

The current decrease in strength is due to the slight increase in vertical wind shear above, which is blowing in the light to moderate range…10-15 knots (12-17 mph). Wind shear aloft is expected to become even stronger over the low level circulation center moving forward. Sea surface temperatures under Gina are now marginal, with further cooling expected over the next 72 hours .

TC 15S will continue its path far offshore to the southeast of the small island of Diego Garcia. This track will keep it over the open ocean throughout the remainder of

its shortening life, eventually losing its tropical aspects…as it moves into the middle latitude westerlies. Thus, there continues to be no harm expected to land masses or islands, although mariners should steer clear of this still strong tropical cyclone.