PDC Weather Wall

March 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 19P (Sandra) remains active in the Coral Sea…located approximately 250 NM west of Noumea, New Caledonia (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 75 knots, with gusts to near 90 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, weakening tropical cyclone 19P (Sandra), with JTWC positions, segments and winds...over the Coral Sea

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues warnings on Tropical Cyclone 19P (Sandra), in the Coral Sea. TC 19P is located approximately 250 NM west of Noumea, New Caledonia. It has moved southward at near 10 knots (12 mph) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery indicates that this TC has rapidly lost its organization during the past 12 hours, with deep convection decreasing greatly.

Thus, TC Sandra continues to move further south, into an increasingly less favorable environment. Despite the fact that the low level circulation center remains pretty tight, this system is starting to be impacted by dry air along the western and northern periphery. Sea surface temperatures are falling rapidly under TC 19P, as it moves further south. At the same time, strong vertical wind shear of 30-40 knots (35-46 mph) above, are taking their toll on this dissipating TC.

Sandra is passing far enough west of New Caledonia, that the associated strong winds are remaining offshore. It is still in the Coral Sea, and on the present south track, is heading towards the Tasman Sea. Meanwhile, this system is remaining far offshore from the eastern Australian coast. Thus, the only danger is for ships in the path of this storm, which should continue to steer clear.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...with an area of disturbed weather (circled in orange) that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...near the Gulf of Carpenteria

Meanwhile, the area of disturbed weather remains in the area of the Gulf of Carpentaria (Northern Territory). This area is located approximately 180 NM west-southwest of the tip of Cape York Peninsula, Australia. Satellite imagery, and radar from Gove, Australia, shows an elongated low level circulation center…within a region of expansive troughing over the Gulf of Carpenteria.

This tropical disturbance has winds near the center running between 15-20 knots (17-23 mph). Upper air analysis shows vertical wind shear is a low to moderate 5-15 knots (07-17 mph). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is giving the potential for moderate development, due to more favorable environmental conditions now through the next 24 hours.