PDC Weather Wall

March 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 19P (Sandra) remains active in the Coral Sea…located approximately 350 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 90 knots, with gusts to near 110 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, weakening tropical cyclone 19P (Sandra), with JTWC positions, segments and winds...over the Coral Sea

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues warnings on Tropical Cyclone 19P (Sandra), in the Coral Sea. TC 19P is located approximately 350 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. It has moved south-southeastward at near 05 knots (06 mph) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery indicates that this TC has weakened during the past 12 hours, with deep convection decreasing.

Despite this weakening trend, satellite pictures also show a well defined center…although deep convection has become more fragmented at the same time. Weakening will be rather slow through the next 24 hours, although from there on out, a more rapid weakening is expected. This will be a result of strong vertical wind shear above, and much cooler sea surface temperatures below.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...with an area of disturbed weather (circled in yellow) that has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...near the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia

Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather is evident near the coast, on the edge of the Gulf of Carpentaria (Northern Territory). This area is located approximately 24 NM southwest of the Gove airport, Australia. Satellite imagery, and radar from Gove, shows a broad low level circulation center…as well as TC 19P in the Coral Sea – well to the east.

This tropical disturbance is mostly over land at the moment, although environmental conditions are generally favorable for development. Vertical wind shear is a low 10-15 knots (12-17 mph), with surface winds estimated to be at 20-25 knots (23-29 mph). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is giving the potential for development…to be in the low category during the next 24 hours.