PDC Weather Wall

March 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 19P (Sandra) remains active in the Coral Sea…located approximately 645 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 60 knots, with gusts to near 75 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, strengthening tropical cyclone 19P (Sandra), with JTWC positions, segments and winds...over the Coral Sea

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues warnings on Tropical Cyclone 19P (Sandra), in the Coral Sea. TC 19P is located approximately 645 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. It has moved eastward at near 06 knots (07 mph) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows deepened thunderstorms over this storm, with a well defined low level circulation center.

Due to good outflow in many directions, and expected low to medium vertical wind shear, TC 19P will continue to intensify…peaking at 100 knots (115 mph) within 72 hours. Thereafter, TC Sandra will begin to weaken by 96 hours, due to less favorable environmental conditions. The current forecast path shows 19P moving southeast, which will turn more south-southeast with time, and very close to New Caledonia. This path will bring high surf, very strong winds, and flooding rainfall to the area. Boaters and residents of New Caledonia, should expect very heavy weather, and begin preparations for Sandra’s close pass now.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...with an area of disturbed weather (circled in red) that has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...in the South Indian Ocean

Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather remains active in the South Indian Ocean, located approximately 640 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Satellite imagery shows persistent convection near the ill defined low level circulation center. There is high, 25-30 knot (29-35 mph) vertical wind shear above, with surface winds near the center running 28-33 knots (32-38 mph). The JTWC assesses the chances of development into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours…as high.