PDC Weather Wall

March 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 19P is now active in the Coral Sea…located approximately 660 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, strengthening tropical cyclone 19P, with JTWC positions, segments and winds...over the Coral Sea

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has initiated warnings for newly formed Tropical Cyclone 19P, in the Coral Sea. TC 19P is located approximately 660 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. It has moved east-northeast at near 11 knots (13 mph) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that fragmented convective bands, are expanding…and wrapping into a loosely defined low level circulation center. The primary convective area is slightly displaced to the west of the center.

Due to strong outflow, and expected low vertical wind shear, TC 19P is expected to gradually intensify, peaking at 95 knots (109 mph) within 72 hours. The JTWC is saying that the available model guidance is in poor agreement, with various solutions to the expected path. One of the models depicts a tight clockwise recurvature into the Australia coast. Thus, the level of confidence with the forecast is generally low. The current forecast path shows 19P turning more to the south-southeast, and staying offshore to the northwest and west of New Caledonia.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...with an area of disturbed weather (circled in orange) that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...in the South Indian Ocean

Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather remains active in the South Indian Ocean, located approximately 590 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Satellite imagery shows intermittent flares of deep convection near the low level circulation center. There is low to moderate 10-20 knot (12-23 mph) vertical wind shear above, with surface winds near the center running 25-30 knots (29-35 mph). This tropical disturbance is moving into an area of increased vertical wind shear, although the JTWC assesses the chances of development into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours…as medium.