PDC Weather Wall

March 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans…nor adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...with an area of disturbed weather (circled in red) that has a high chance of developing into tropical cyclones within 24 hours...offshore the NE coast of Queensland, Australia

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), is pointing out two areas of disturbed weather today, one is the located

just offshore from Queensland, Australia…the other in the South Indian Ocean. The picture above shows the tropical disturbance with the highest chance of developing, circled in red. This area is located approximately 215 NM east-southeast of Willis Island, Australia.

Satellite imagery shows an elongated but consolidating low level circulation center, with flaring deep convection near this center. Upper air analysis continues to show good poleward and equatorial outflow. The circulation center is currently located in an area of moderate 10-20 knot (12-23 mph) vertical wind shear. Stronger vertical wind shear exist both north and south of the center.

Sea surface temperatures remain favorable for development, running 28-30 degrees Celsius (83-86F). Considering these good environmental conditions, the JTWC is giving this area of disturbed weather a high chance of developing within the next 24 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...with an area of disturbed weather (circled in orange) that has a medium chance of developing into tropical cyclones within 24 hours...in the South Indian Ocean

The picture above shows the second tropical disturbance, circled in orange…with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. This disturbance is located approximately 345 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center, with improving deep convective banding, wrapping into a well defined low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows only a marginal environment however, with moderately strong 10-20 knot vertical wind shear. Maximum sustained surface winds in the area are estimated to be 25-30 knots (29-35 mph). Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be 1002 millibars (~29.60 inches of mercury). Given these conditions, the JTWC is giving a medium chance for development of a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.