PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
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Tropical cyclone 17S (Rusty) is active in the southeast Indian Ocean…located approximately 335 NM east-northeast of Learmonth, Australia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 65 knots, with gusts to near 80 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 17S (Rusty), with JTWC positions, segments and winds...over the far southeast Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 17S (Rusty) remains active over the far southeastern Indian Ocean, just north of the northwest coast of Australia. TC Rusty is located approximately 335 NM east-northeast of Learmonth, Australia. It has been drifting south-southwestward at a very slow 03 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that Rusty has maintained a ragged central eye, despite the fact that the convective bands have begun to unwind slightly. Here is a looping radar image of TC Rusty, taken from Port Hedland, Australia.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that there is low wind shear above, and an excellent radial outflow. TC Rusty may intensify slightly over the next 12 hours, as the vertical wind shear remains low…which is favorable for more development. Shortly after landfall, near Port Hedland, this tropical system will weaken due to its land interaction. In addition, there will be increasing vertical wind shear, both of which will cause dissipation within 72 hours.

Australia’s largest iron ore ports were shut down yesterday, ahead of this tropical cyclone. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued

a cyclone warning from Mardie, 745 miles north of Perth, to Cape Leveque in Western Australia’s far north. Since TC 17S is so slow moving, it will have more time to slam the coast with very strong winds, and deluge the area with flooding rainfall…and well inland. Ships, and small boats along this part of the coast of Australia, should have found safe shelter by now. Coastal residents will find pounding high surf, as well as tides rising well beyond normal high tide marks…causing dangerous coastal inundation.

Tropical cyclone 18S is active in the south Indian Ocean…located approximately 1000 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia (Tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 18S, with JTWC positions, segments and winds...over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 18S remains active in the South Indian Ocean. It is located approximately 1000 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. TC 18S has tracked south-southeastward at a slow 04 knots over the last six hours. Satellite imagery shows the main thunderstorm convection remains detached from the low level circulation. Upper air analysis shows the system remains under an area of strong 30-40 knot (35-46 mph) easterly vertical wind shear. This TC remains in a weak steering environment, with that slow drifting motion to the SSE.

This slow motion is expected to continue through the next 48 hours…with possible dissipation. If this cyclone survives, it will begin to intensify thereafter, as the upper wind shear decreases. TC 18S has a path taking it nearly straight eastward through the next several days, moving very slowly. Thereafter, the path takes a slight shift to the south as it begins to speed up and increases in strength. It is expected to head towards the Australian coast with time. Ocean going ships in the area should be steering clear of this storm.