PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 17S (Rusty) is active in the southeast Indian Ocean…located approximately 370 NM northeast of Learmonth, Australia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 65 knots, with gusts to near 80 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 17S (Rusty), with JTWC positions, segments and winds...over the far southeast Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 17S (Rusty) has formed over the South Indian Ocean to the north of northwest Australia. TC Rusty

is located approximately 370 NM northeast of Learmonth, Australia. It has been moving southeastward at a slow 05 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that Rusty continues to consolidate, as thunderstorm bands deepen, and wrap tighter around the low level circulation center. Upper air analysis indicates that there is low vertical wind shear, with very good radial outflow.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) expects rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, as environmental conditions remain highly favorable for additional development. TC 17S will make landfall near Port Hedland, Australia after 24 hours. This land interaction, and increasing vertical wind shear, will take its toll on Rusty, causing dissipation over land within 96 hours. Ships, and small boats along this part of the coast of Australia, should be finding safe shelter, and steer clear of this storm. Coastal residents should be cautious of high surf, increasingly strong winds…and heavy rains approaching.

Tropical cyclone 18S is active in the south Indian Ocean…located approximately 980 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 18S, with JTWC positions, segments and winds...over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 18S has formed recently in the South Indian Ocean, near Cocos Island, Australia. It is located approximately 980 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Satellite imagery shows the main thunderstorm convection having been sheared westward. Upper air analysis shows the system is under an area of moderate to strong 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) vertical wind shear. These strong winds aloft will cause TC 18S to struggle over the next 48 hours.

After 48 hours, this tropical system will begin to intensify, as the upper wind shear decreases. TC 18S has a path taking it nearly straight eastward through the next 2-3 days, moving very slowly. Thereafter, the path takes a slight shift to the south as it begin to speed up and increases in strength. It is expected to head towards the Australian coast….somewhere between Learmonth and Port Hedland. Ocean going ships in the area should be steering clear of this slowly intensifying storm.