PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna) remains active over Madagascar…located approximately 300 NM southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 80 knots, with gusts to near 100 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna), with JTWC positions, segments and winds...over southern Madagascar

Tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna) has moved out of the Mozambique Channel over southern Madagascar, located approximately 300 NM southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. TS Haruna has been moving south-southeast at 07 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that TC Haruna has been over the land mass of Madagascar for the last 12 hours, with a slow but steady weakening trend.

TC 16S is under a low vertical wind shear, which is running only 5-10 knots (7-12 mph). Meanwhile, as TC Haruna has moved over land, the central eye has become

smaller and quite ragged. As this weakening system continues its journey across Madagascar, frictional effects will continue to drag the storm down in strength.

TC 16S will remain over land for another 18-24 hours, and then move out over the South Indian Ocean…with further weakening the result. As this move back over the ocean occurs, sea surface temperatures will drop, and vertical wind shear will increase above. This storm will remain over the open ocean, well to the south of La Reunion Island, with dissipation expected within 72 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and two areas of disturbed weather (circled in yellow) that have a low chance of developing into tropical cyclones within 24 hours...in the South Indian Ocean

The two areas shown above, both circled in yellow, are regions of disturbed weather in the southeast Indian Ocean. The area on the right, closest to Australia, is located approximately 595 NM north of Learmonth, Australia. Satellite imagery shows a broad circulation, with disorganized thunderstorm activity. Upper air analysis shows low vertical wind shear of only 10 knots (12 mph), with very warm sea surface temperatures of 30-31C (86-88F) degrees. Meanwhile, surface winds in the area are 15-20 knots (17-23 mph). Weather models are showing this tropical disturbance intensifying over the next 36-48 hours. Despite these favorably inclined environmental factors, there’s a low chance of development over the next 24 hours.

The second area of disturbed weather, to the west of the one described above, was located approximately 295 miles east-southeast of Cocos Island, Australia. Satellite imagery shows a weak low level circulation, with flaring thunderstorm activity displaced to the southwest of this center. Upper air estimates show strong 30 knot (35 mph) vertical wind shear above this area. Nonetheless, weather models show this tropical disturbance developing over the next 36-48 hours as well. Maximum surface winds are running in the 15-20 knot range, with sea level air pressure estimated to be near 1005 millibars. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is giving a low chance of development over the next 24 hours.