PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna) remains active in the Mozambique Channel…located approximately 350 NM southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar (Tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 100 knots, with gusts to near 125 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna), with JTWC positions, segments and winds...in the Mozambique Channel

Tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna) remains active in the Mozambique Channel, located approximately 350 NM southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. TS Haruna has been moving east-northeast at a very slow 03 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that TC Haruna has remained steady in its strength during the past 12 hours. It shows a well defined eye, with deep thunderstorm bands wrapping around the center of this system.

TC 16S remains in a favorable environment, with low vertical wind shear. During this next 12 hours or so, TC Haruna will remain at top strength, with 100 knot winds (115 mph), and gusts to 125 knots (132 mph). Weakening will begin thereafter, as it runs over cooler sea surface temperatures below, and increasing vertical wind shear above…and interaction with the southern part of Madagascar.

These untoward influences, as TC 16S moves across land, will work together to reduce the intensity of this storm. TC 16S will then move out over the South Indian Ocean…with further weakening the result. This storm will remain over the open ocean, well to the south of La Reunion Island. Local mariners along the coast need to steer clear of this system, while ships at sea to the south and southeast of Madagascar should move away as well. The local population along the coasts, and inland too, should expect strong and gusty winds, heavy rains, and high surf conditions.

Tropical cyclone 02W is now dissipating in the South China Sea…located approximately 380 NM south-southwest of Puerto Princesa, Philippines (Dissipating tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 25 knots, with gusts to near 35 knots) – Final Warning

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, dissipating tropical cyclone 02W, with JTWC positions, segments, and winds...in the South China Sea

Tropical cyclone 02W is now dissipating in the South China Sea, located approximately 380 NM south-southwest of Puerto Princesa, Philippines. TC 02W has been moving westward at a quick paced 24 knots (28 mph) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows the low level

circulation center…now well to the west of where previous satellite fixes had it.

Environmental influences remain unfavorable for development, including the strong 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) vertical wind shear. As TC 02W tracks westward across the South China Sea, it is also encountering a surge of northeasterly winds, both at the surface and aloft. Drier and cooler air associated with this surge, will help to continue this demise of tropical depression 02W…which is expected to be complete within 24 hours.