PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna) remains active in the Mozambique Channel…located approximately 400 NM west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 70 knots, with gusts to near 85 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna), with JTWC positions, segments and winds...in the Mozambique Channel

Tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna) remains active in the Mozambique Channel, located approximately 400 NM west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. TS Haruna has been moving southwestward at a relatively slow 05 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a well developed system, that continues to consolidate, and has formed a 25 NM central eye…with deep thunderstorms surrounding the eye.

TC 16S remains in a favorable environment, with excellent outflow, cheap car insurance quotes and only a low 5-10 knots (7-12 mph) vertical wind shear. This storms track has been irregular over the last 12 hours, due to the weak steering currents in the area. Despite this, Haruna has been trending on a southern track. This weak steering environment is forecast by the JTWC to persist over the next 24 hours.

During this next 24 hour period, TC Haruna is expected to peak in strength, reaching 85 knots (98 mph). Weakening will begin thereafter, as it runs over cooler sea surface temperatures below, with increasing vertical wind shear above, and interaction with the far southwest and southern tip of Madagascar occur…reducing the intensity of this storm. TC 16S will then move out over the South Indian Ocean…with further weakening the result.

Tropical cyclone 02W remains active in the southern Philippines…located approximately 135 NM west-northwest of Zamboanga, Philippines (Tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 25 knots, with gusts to near 30 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 02W, with JTWC positions, segments, and winds...in the Sulu Sea of the Philippines

Tropical cyclone 02W remains active in the Sulu Sea of the southern Philippines, located approximately 135 NM west-northwest of Zamboanga, Philippines. TC 02W has been moving west-northwest at 09 knots (11 mph) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a poorly defined low level circulation center…with limited deep convection near this central area of this weak tropical depression.

Environmental influences remain unfavorable for development, including the now strong 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) vertical wind shear. As TC 02W tracks westward into the South China Sea, it is expected to encounter a surge of northeasterly winds, both at the surface and aloft. Drier and cooler air associated with this surge, will lead to dissipation…which is now expected within 36 hours.