PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna) is active in the Mozambique Channel…located approximately 375 NM west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna), with JTWC positions, segments and winds...in the Mozambique Channel

Tropical cyclone 16S (Haruna) is now active in the Mozambique Channel, located approximately 375 NM west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. TS Haruna is moving southward at a relatively slow 05 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a well developed low level circulation center, with deep convective banding features.

Environmental conditions remain good for a slow increase in strength, with moderate 15-20 knots (17-23 mph) of vertical wind shear above. This strengthening phase is expected to last through the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the vertical wind shear above will increase, initiating the dissipating stage from then on out.

As TC Haruna moves more southeast, it will begin to interact with the far southwest tip of Madagascar, further reducing the intensity of this storm. TC 16S will run over cooler sea surface temperatures as it moves over the open ocean to the south and southeast of Madagascar, helping to finally dissipate this system within 120 hours.

Tropical cyclone 02W is active in the southern Philippines…located approximately 55 NM east-southeast of Zamboanga, Philippines (Tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 25 knots, with gusts to near 30 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 02W, with JTWC positions, segments, error cones and winds...in the Southern Philippines

Tropical cyclone 02W is now active in the southern Philippines, located approximately 55 NM east-southeast of Zamboanga, Philippines. TC 02W has been moving east-southeast at 09 knots (11 mph) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a very poorly organized, and ill defined low level circulation center…with associated disorganized convection.

Environmental influences are not good for development, including moderately strong 15-20 knot (17-23 mph) vertical wind shear. At the same time, land interaction is greatly limiting organization and strengthening. As TC 02W tracks west-northwestward into the South China Sea, it is expected to intensify

slightly.

A surge of northeasterly winds, both at the surface and aloft, will reach this tropical system after 36 hours, reducing its chances for further development. The JTWC is calling for complete dissipation with 96 hours. The confidence level described above is on the low side, due to the low confidence of the initial fixing position today.