PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 15S (Gino) is now dissipating in the south Indian Ocean…located approximately 1395 NM southeast of Diego Garcia (Dissipating tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots) – Final Warning

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 15S (Gino), with JTWC positions, segments, error cones and winds...in the south Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 15S (Gina) is now dissipating in the south Indian Ocean Friday, located approximately 1395 NM southeast of Diego Garcia. Gina is now moving eastward at a faster 15 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a broadening low level circulation center, with rapidly decaying deep convection, displaced about 200 NM southeast of the center.

The intensity assessed for the JTWC advisory #10, showed a significant decrease in sustained wind speeds…of 40 knots (46 mph), with gusts to near 50 knots (58 mph). TC 15S is encountering increased vertical wind shear above, which has reached 40 knots (46 mph). Based on the unfavorable environmental conditions, the JTWC has issued its final warning on this dissipating system.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and an area of disturbed weather (circled in yellow) that has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...over the Mozambique Channel

Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather has developed, located approximately 385 NM west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Satellite imagery shows a well defined low level circulation center, with formative convective banding over the eastern semi-circle. This area is currently under weak to moderate shearing wind flow aloft, running 10-20 knots (12-23 mph). Sea surface temperatures are definitely warm enough to promote development, showing 29-30C degrees (84-86F). Estimated surface winds near the center are 20-25 knots (23-29 mph). Weather models indicate steady development over the next 48 to 72 hours.