PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 15S (Gino) remains active in the south Indian Ocean…located approximately 1110 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 70 knots, with gusts to near 85 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 15S (Gino), with JTWC positions, segments, error cones and winds...in the south Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 15S (Gina) remains active in the south Indian Ocean Thursday, located approximately 1110 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Gina is now moving south-southeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows the convection (thunderstorms) around the low level circulation center…being sheared over the southeast quadrant. Despite the recent weakening trend, there is still some deep convective banding associated with this system.

The intensity assessed for the JTWC advisory #8, showed sustained winds had decreased to 70 knots (98 mph), with gusts to near

85 knots (98 mph). TC Gina peaked in strength during the last 12-18 hours, with steadily diminishing wind speeds forecast through the remainder of her life. This system will drop below 65 knots (75 mph) within 12 hours…reaching only 30 knots with 40 knot gusts (35-46 mph) by 48 hours.

TC 15S will soon encounter increased vertical wind shear above, which is expected to become strong…40-60 knots (46-69 mph). Meanwhile, the sea surface temperatures under Gina will become much cooler soon as well, running 24-25C (75-77F). These two environmental factors will be the one-two punch that will take Gina to the mat (I mean the history books).

TC 15S will continue its path far offshore to the southeast of the small island of Diego Garcia. This track will keep it over the open ocean throughout the remainder of its shortening life, eventually losing its tropical aspects…as it moves into the middle latitude westerlies. Thus, there continues to be no harm expected to land masses or islands, although mariners should steer clear of this rather quickly weakening tropical cyclone.