PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
S	M	T	W	T	F	S
« Jan		Mar »
	1	2
3	4	5	6	7	8	9
10	11	12	13	14	15	16
17	18	19	20	21	22	23
24	25	26	27	28

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 15S (Gino) remains active in the south Indian Ocean…located approximately 700 NM southeast of Diego Garcia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 75 knots, with gusts to near 90 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 15S (Gino), with JTWC positions, segments, winds...in the south Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 15S (Gina) remains active in the south Indian Ocean Tuesday, located approximately 700 NM southeast of Diego Garcia. Gina has been moving south-southwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that a ragged eye has developed over the past 12 hours, with deep convective banding…wrapping into the low level circulation center. Low vertical wind shear above this storm is helping to boost its strength.

The intensity assessed for the JTWC advisory #4, showed sustained winds had increased to 75 knots (86 mph), with gusts to near 90 knots (104 mph). Gina is forecast to increase in strength through the next 24 hours…peaking at 90 knots, with gusts to near 110 knots (104-127 mph). This system will begin to weaken thereafter…dropping to 50 knots with 65 knot gusts (58-75 mph) by 72 hours.

The current strengthening phase is due primarily to warm sea surface temperatures under Gina, which are running 28C (82F), and the low wind shear above. The weakening phase ahead will be due to cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasingly strong wind shear after 36 hours.

TC 15S will continue its path well southeast of the small island of Diego Garcia. This track will keep it over the open ocean throughout the remainder of its life, eventually losing its tropical aspects…as it moves into the middle latitude westerlies. Thus, there continues to be no harm expected to land masses or islands, although mariners should steer clear of this still strengthening tropical cyclone.