PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 14P (Haley) is dissipating in the southwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 500 NM south-southeast of Bora Bora, Society Islands, French Polynesia (Dissipating tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots) – Final Warning

Tropical cyclone 15S (Gino) is now active in the south Indian Ocean…located approximately 630 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 15S (Gino), with JTWC positions, segments, winds...in the south Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 15S (Gina) is active in the south Indian Ocean, located approximately 630 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Gina has been moving southwestward at 09 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery

shows this tropical system in a consolidating mode, with improved deep convective banding…wrapping into a well defined central circulation center.

An intensity assessed for the JTWC advisory #2, showed sustained of 45 knots (52 mph), with gusts to near 55 knots (63 mph). Gina is forecast to increase in strength through the next 60 hours, under favorable upper level conditions…peaking between 85-90 knots (98-104 mph). This system will begin to weaken after 60 hours, due to increased vertical wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures.

TC 15S will continue its path between the small islands of Diego Garcia, and Cocos Island, Australia. This track will keep it over the open ocean throughout its life, eventually taking on a frontal character, after losing its tropical aspects…as it moves into the middle latitude westerlies. Thus, there is no harm expected to land, although mariners should steer clear of this strengthening tropical cyclone.

Meanwhile, dissipating tropical cyclone 14P (Haley), which spun up during this past weekend, is already dissipating…and has been given its final warning by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The last noted location was approximately 500 NM south-southeast of Bora Bora, in French Polynesia. The last satellite image fix showed no deep convection, with a general unraveling…as dry air was entraining into what’s left of the central core.

TC 14P tracked into an unfavorable environment, with cool sea surface temperatures, and increasing vertical wind shear. Thus, the JTWC has discontinued warnings, as the system dissipates further during the day.